Bullpen Profile: Rare Optimism

Good afternoon Yankee fans,

I found some more down time tonight, despite the first week of college classes starting up again for my fourth semester. A very interesting area for Yankee fans to speculate about is the bullpen. For quite some time, it has easily been one of the biggest weaknesses on this team (if not the biggest). I agree that this is still the case, however I have an optimistic hunch that has taken hold of me over the last few weeks. We have a huge laundry list of pitching prospects, and, arguably one of the best farm system in the majors when it comes to pitching depth and talent.

I'm going to take some time to profile our bullpen prospects that we might see in 2008, excluding the Sandman, Farnsworth, and Hawkins, who are known commodities. Here are all of the pitchers I think have a shot at making an appearance on either the opening day roster, or a mid-late season call up, and their respective evaluations from myself, in no special order:

1. Ross Ohlendorf - Good shot at making the opening day roster. His fastball sits in the mid 90s, and has a heavy sinker ball that is ideal for placing him in the middle of an inning with runners on if we desperately need a double play. That alone gives him an edge, given that most of our other arms are fastball/slider guys. Since being converted to a reliever, Ross has been able to let that fastball go a little more, and can regularly touch 96-98 mph.

He has struggles with control in the past year, but he seems to be finding it again, returning to the stellar control he showed in 2006. He put up good numbers during his short stint in the majors (2.84 ERA, 6.1 IP, 9 Ks), and has put up similarly good numbers in the winter league (3.52 ERA, 7.1 IP, 3 Ks). Outlook: He will be a real solid reliever for us if he can develop one of the breaking pitches and get his strikeout rate up. I think he could be a decent middle reliever for us this season.

2. Jonathan Albaladejo - He throws 93, with a good, breaking curve ball and a slider that’s a little harder. He’s shown good control and good presence on the mound as a reliever. He came to the nationals as a minor league free agent from the Pirates system.

He seems like a strong relief prospect, but with weight problems. An excellent acquisition, if you as me. He's young, he throws hard, and he's put up stellar numbers just about where ever he goes. He was my pick in that poll on the right by the way.

3. J.B. Cox - He might take a little longer, coming back from T.J. surgery, but man does this kid have promise. In 2006, he threw 77 innings of relief for AA Trenton, with a 1.75 ERA. He's got plus control on his fastball, which sits around 91-92, and has good sink. He's got a plus slider, which he also has great control of and uses as a strikeout weapon. Cox also has an average change up, not a plus pitch, but if he throws it in on occasion, it seems to do the job of keeping the hitter guessing. He has been compared to Jon Wetteland, or Scott Shields. Cox could be a decent closer, but would be better suited as a set up man, which sure works for us with Mo on for 3 more years. I have high hopes for this kid, and I expect him to be a mid-season call up. He’s a candidate to be 2008’s Joba.

4. Alan Horne – Horne was a little further down on the depth charts until his real break out season last year. In AA Trenton, he went 12-4 with a 3.11 ERA and 165 Ks in 153.1 innings. He throws hard, but has struggled with command since T.J. surgery in 2004. However, he has shown a great deal of progression since then, working his way up to probably our best pitching prospect outside of the big 3. Look for him to get the call up for a spot start if there’s an injury, and a bullpen call up. Horne is most likely the first pitcher to get the call up barring a slow start to his AAA season. He’s got a great sinking fastball, a sharp, biting 12-6 curveball, and an above average slider. He’s got great stuff.

5. Jeff Marquez – The infamous Jeff Marquez, among the guys rumored in that Santana trade. Most people didn’t want to make the trade because of Hughes, and while I agree there, I also didn’t want to make the trade because of Marquez. He also sports a sinking fastball that he gets a lot of groundballs from. While this pitch is good, his real plus pitch is his changeup, a pitch that is regarded as the best changeup in the Yankees’ system (yes, better than Edwar Ramirez’s changeup). He can throw his fastball around 92-93, and his changeup (from the exact same arm slot) at around 76 mph. That’s pretty impressive. He also has a plus curveball around the same velocity as his changeup. Marquez is not a strikeout pitcher, he’s a Wang-style pitcher. But, like Ohlendorf, that sinker would be a very interesting option coming out of the pen with runners on and a desperate need for a double play.

6. Daniel McCutchen – This guy is my sleeper pick for a bullpen call up mid-season if he doesn’t make the opening day roster (he did get a non-roster invite to spring training). McCutchen is starting to get a little older (25), but he has put up stellar numbers where ever he goes. He’s got a fastball that sits around 92, without any great movement. Unlike most of the pitchers the Yanks have, his fastball isn’t even close to his best pitch. He sports an excellent curveball and splitter. Each of his 3 main pitches are at different speeds, and McCutchen has a reputation of mixing them very well to keep hitters off balance. In his first year of professional ball, 2006, he put up a 1.13 ERA with 11 Ks in 8 Staten Island innings, and a 2.14 ERA with 18Ks in 21 Charleston innings. In 2007, he put up an impressive 2.50 ERA in 101 innings in Tampa, and 2.41 ERA in 41 Trenton innings. I’m looking forward to seeing this guy pitch.

7. Mark Melancon – I had trouble finding info on him due to his limited professional career so far. Melancon is reported to have been one of the top college closers during his tenure, and is projected to be a talent major league closer. He’s coming back from T.J. surgery as well, so don’t expect him too soon. He’s got great stuff, and is regarded as already pretty polished, so he may not need a great deal of time in the minors. If he can bounce back from the surgery quickly, I could see him as a late season call up. I’m excited about this kid, he is on the short list for Rivera’s replacement.

8. Scott Patterson – I don’t know much about him in terms of “stuff”, but I’d say he’s got a good shot in our pen. He’s 28, so he’s getting kind of old, but he put up a stunning 1.09 ERA with 91 Ks in 74.1 innings in AA Trenton, following up with giving up only 1 earned run in 5.2 innings in the winter league with 7 Ks. 28 might be a little old for a prospect, but you can’t ignore those numbers.

9. Heath Phillips – He’s never really put up great numbers, and has little MLB experience, but he’s a lefty. And as deep as our pitching is, lefties are what we lack. I can definitely see him doing a better job than Sean Henn out of the pen. He has a 3.68 ERA in 7.1 MLB innings.

10. Dave Robertson – He’s my other sleeper pick for the pen. He’s got a fastball around 92-93 mph with some good, late movement on it. He’s also got a plus power slider and an above average cutter. He struggled with control in college, but has shown a vast improvement in the minors, making it one of his assets. Robertson has classic power relief stuff, and his another promising player to compete for Mariano’s job in a few years. In 2007, he split his time between A Charleston, A+ Tampa, and AA Trenton, with ERAs of 0.77 (67 Ks in 47 IP), 1.08 (37 Ks in 33.1 P), and 2.25 (9 Ks in 4 IP). Very promising numbers to say the least. His strikeout ratios are great. He’ll probably start the year in AA, since he only got 4 innings there last season, I can see him getting a call to AAA shortly after the start of the season, and a mid-season call up for us if we need them help.

11. Humberto Sanchez – Big guy with a heavy fastball that is consistently in the mid-90s. He is regarded as having some of the best pure stuff in the minors (the entire minors, not just the Yankees’ system), only one notch below coveted blue chippers such as Phil Hughes. His fastball is a pretty consistent bat-breaker, and Sanchez also throws an above average curveball and an average changeup. Much like Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees are working to develop his changeup into a plus pitch. Sanchez is yet another guy coming off T.J. surgery, and will resume throwing in the next couple months. When he returns, he will most likely get some time in at AA to rehab, then the call to AAA will shortly follow. Sanchez is another strong candidate to be the 2008 Joba as a mid-late-season call up. If he stays healthy and returns to form, he will be a solid part of the late-inning game, as well as being able to provide a spot start if needed.

12. Billy Traber – We signed him to a minor league time at the same time as Heath Phillips, with the same purpose in mind: to try to find a lefty out of the pen. In my opinion, Traber is a more promising option than Phillips, although Traber is 3 years older (28). In AAA last season, Traber had an impressive 2.90 ERA in 40.1 innings, although he only put up 29 Ks. His numbers didn’t fair so well after a call up to his major league club, the Nationals. In 39.2 innings there, he had a 4.76 ERA with 26 Ks. The reason why I like Traber, is his splits. During his MLB stint, he held lefties to a .176 batting average. That’s a very encouraging statistic, and if he can duplicate that in spring training, expect him to make the opening day roster as our new lefty specialist.

13. Kevin Whelan – Yet another reliever with promise. In 2006 A+ ball, he had a 2.67 ERA in 54 innings, with 69 Ks. In 2007 A+ ball, he had a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings, with 28 Ks. After a call up to AA, he continued on pace, putting up a 2.98 ERA in 54.1 innings with 68 Ks. I expect Whelan to start the season with AAA, and he is a strong candidate for a call up at the first sign of trouble early in the season. Whelan used to be a catcher, but was converted to a pitcher due to his inability to hit and because he throws hard. His fastball sits in the 92-95 range. He has a great splitter, which is his main strikeout weapon. The only knock on Whelan, is he has struggled with his command. However, given how late he converted to pitching, this can be expected. With a little more experience, Whelan could blossom into a top-notch set up man, of even a closer.

14. Steven White – White had a solid 2007 campaign, putting up a 3.34 ERA in 91.2 innings in AAA. However, he struggled a bit in the winter league, which might set him back a bit in terms of MLB debuts. White has a two-seam and a four-seam fastball that he can pump in at 95-97 mph, but loses his control when he throws that hard. He usually dials down to 93-94 mph, which allows him to throw a lot of innings since he is not throwing as hard has he can. He has an above average curveball, and a plus change up. White’s greatest problem is his head. He tends to get nervous when he gets into a jam and overthrows the ball, losing his command. This generally happens when he is called up to a higher level of ball and tries to hard. In short, he takes longer to adjust to different levels of play then most do. He’s got the stuff to be a major league starter, but his lack of confidence in jams worries me for a bullpen call up. Despite that, if he puts up good numbers in AAA, I’m sure the Yanks would give a guy that can dial it up to 97 a chance out of the pen.

15. Eric Wordekemper – Wordekemper has never mad it past A+ ball, but given that he’s 24 years old already, and the meteoric rise of Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him open the year in AA and could be a late season call up. I mean, if you look at the kid’s numbers, he’s got the skills to move that quickly. In 2007, he spend the entire season in Tampa, pitching 47 innings, and posting a dazzling 0.57 ERA with 34 Ks. He continued to shine in the winter league, posting a 2.89 ERA in 9.1 innings with 8 Ks. I can’t seem to find much on his arsenal, but I do know that he is very versatile, having been used as a starter, a middle reliever, and as a closer in his minor league career, putting up excellent numbers throughout all it.

16. Chase Wright – I’m not too excited about Wright, but I’m putting him here because the fact that he’s left handed means he’s got a shot. Wright throws his fastball around 89-91 mph, and has a plus sinking changeup. Other than that, he lacks a good enough third pitch to succeed at the major league level, and his BAA vs. lefties is .250. That’s not awful, but I don’t think its good enough to make it as a lefty specialist. Who knows, maybe Wright can develop a breaking pitch to help him fool hitters. But despite the promise he has, he continues to struggle with command, and walks too many batters.

17. Edwar Ramirez – We all know this guy. I’m encouraged by the flashes of talent we saw during his MLB stint. He was a little inconsistent, and was misused by Torre a little as well. Ramirez’s big strength is that plus changeup he’s got. However, he has a weak fastball, and a lack of another go-to pitch. If Ramirez can develop another above average pitch, he can be a helpful addition to the pen.

18. Chris Britton – I like him more than most people do. In 2007 at AAA, he had an impressive 2.51 ERA, and 58 Ks in 57.1 innings. In his MLB stint, he posted a 3.55 ERA in 12.1 innings, 5 Ks. Cool fact: Britton (although he’s a righty) held lefties to a .118 batting average. If he can keep his weight under control, expect him to help out as a middle reliever.

19. Brian Bruney – The only way the Bruney can help, is if he returns to 2006 form. Last season, he showed a lot of inconsistency. He needs to work on his weight and his control. If he can do that, I’d say he’s got as much of a shot as Britton does. But, I’m not as big a fan of Bruney.

20. Kei Igawa - This is an update...I originally left Igawa off the list. Haha, just goes to show you what kind of impact he had last year. Basically it boils down to this: If Igawa was right handed, he wouldn't have a shot in hell. But lefties always get more chances than righties do. Igawa has about as much of a shot as Chase Wright does, maybe a little more. The guy was a strikeout machine in Japan, I've got to believe he's adjust at least a little bit. If he can keep the ball low in the zone, hopefully he can at least be effective against left handed hitters.

21. Jose Veras - Late update, sorry about that guys. I'm in Kansas City for the weekend for official fraternity business, so I've been quite busy and I forgot Veras on the list. Veras is probably one of the less promising bullpen arms, although he does have the potential to be a solid middle reliever for us if he can keep his control in check. He throws relatively hard, but as I just stated, he often struggles with command, leaving pitching up in the zone. However, it seems that Veras has been making some adjustments, as he was virtually un-hittable during his time in the winter leagues. I'd say he has a great shot of making the opening day roster if he can carry that momentum with him into spring training and if he can keep his command. He's another fastball/slider guy, so he's sure going to have his competition.

Forgive me if I left anyone out, but I think I touched on just about everyone. I suppose we could always be surprised by some guys still in low A ball, you never know. My conclusion: I think with this many bullpen options, and so few spots, the competition will really drive this kids to pitch their best to get the job. And if someone falls, we can give another kid a shot. We have so much talent, that I have to believe that at least a few of these kids will shine for us, whether it be spring training or July. By the end of 2008, I predict that the bullpen will end up being a strength for us.

So I have decided to take the virtual bullet here. I remain cautiously optimistic about our bullpen. The pen may struggle in the first month or two of the season, but I have faith in Girardi and Eiland to sift throw these pitchers and find the gems. There are many who will disagree with me, but I stand by that line of thinking. Only time will tell who is right.