Thursday, March 13, 2008

25 Men

Ahh, spring is in mid-swing! I'm sure all you Yankee fans out there are well aware of the questions that the Yankee brass need to answer by opening day. As March 31 approaches, some of those questions are beginning to see the outline of an answer.

First base...this is perhaps the toughest question. Giambi, Duncan, and Ensberg are all having great springs. So who gets cut? So far this spring, Giambi is hitting .353 (6-17) with 1 HR and 5 RBIs. Duncan is hitting an even .400 (8-20) with 2 HR and 9 RBIs. Ensberg is hitting .333 (6-18) with no homers and 2 RBIs.

Betemit looks like he may be in danger of not only not getting the starting first base job, but getting cut from the roster entirely. He's hitting a measley .174 (4-23) with 2 HR and 4 RBIs. The only thing going in Betemit's favor, is that he has continued to show that he has some pop in his bat to offer from the bench. Being a switch hitter that can play any infield position helps his cause as well. Unfortunately for Betemit, he's not the only guy with versatility in camp. Chris Woodward looks like he may steal the utility job from Betemit. Woodward has been very impressive in camp this far, hitting .474 (9-19), with no homers and 2 RBIs. Even Jason Lane is hitting well (.304), and he gets bonus points for being able to play first and a corner outfield position.

So what do I think should happen? I would put Betemit in AAA, and give the utility job to Woodward. Betemit's pop is nice, but with power hitters like Matsui, A-Rod, Giambi, Duncan, and the slightly less power guys like Abreu, Cano, and Posada, this lineup has all the home run pop it needs. What we do need, is a guy that can get on base with some speed so the guys with power can drive them in. Woodward has had 9 hits in 9 games, and has some speed. He can play every infield position (except first base, I'm not entirely sure there). Baseball is a game of streaks. You gotta go with who's hot, and right now, I'll take the red-hot Woodward over the slumping Betemit.

So what about first base? As much as I want Ensberg to succeed, he's gotta start the season in AAA, while the Yanks platoon Giambi and Duncan at first. Ensberg is better than both of them with the glove, but Giambi and Duncan are tearing it up, and the compliment each other nicely since they each hit from different sides of the plate. Giambi starts against righties, Duncan starts against lefties. Unfortunately, I don't see where Ensberg fits into that picture. Its nice to know we have an established veteran ready for call up in the case of an injury though.

I also think Jason Lane gets cut. His versitality is nice, but if we want another outfielder on the roster, I'd give the job to Brett Gardner. He's hitting a healthy .313 (5-16) this spring, with a .389 OBP. Gardner's style of play is just what Girardi is looking for, and just what we need on this team. He could be a 5th outfielder, and the best option for center field is Melky gets injured or needs a day off. Gardner is blindingly fast, and would be perfect for a pinch runner, a pinch hitter for a bunt situation, and a back up center fielder (or left fielder for that matter).

Assuming the Yanks carry 12 picthers, the 13 remaing position players should look like this:
Catcher: Posada, Molina
First Base/DH: Giambi, Duncan
Second Base: Cano
Short Stop: Jeter
Third Base: Rodriguez
Utility: Woodward
Right Field: Abreu/Duncan
Center Field: Cabrera, Gardner
Left Field/DH: Damon, Matsui

So what of the 12 picthers? Well most of them are already a lock. It looks like the rotation will be Wang, Pettite, Hughes, Mussina, Kennedy.

That gives us Farnsworth, Hawkins, Chamberlain, and Rivera in the bullpen, leaving us with 3 open spots. From the looks of what is going on so far this spring, it looks like Karstens will get one spot, as the long man/spot starter. Billy Traber has been lights out, stiking out 5 in 3.2 innings without giving up a run (and he's a lefty), so I give him the second spot. The final third spot in the pen is the toughest to give out.

Scott Patterson has made a strong case, pitching 4.1 innings, striking out 4, giving out 1 hit, no walks, and no runs. Britton and Ohlendorf also look strong, but the numbers don't quite match up to what Patterson has put up. If it were my decision, I would give it to Patterson. However, at the first sign of trouble, it is nice to know that we have a ton of option to turn to.

The Yankees have a better team then they did last year. The bullpen has been (and still is) a major area of concern, but a bullpen of Karstens, Patterson, Traber, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Chamberlain, and Rivera isn't too shabby. If Karstens and Patterson can continue to put up the kind of numers they've been puttin up recently, we shouldn't have too much trouble. From what I've seen of Karstens, it looks as if he's made some adjustments since last year, but I'm still not sold on him. Patterson was very solid last year in the minors, and solid in the winter leagues as well. I also feel pretty confident with Traber. He hasn't been stellar in most of his career, but he has alsways shown his ability to get lefties out, and that is what we need him for.

And we went from having a weak bench, to a pretty strong one. A bench of Woodward, Duncan/Giambi, Gardner, Damon/Matsui, and Molina looks pretty good to me. All cylanders are clicking with our lineup so far, and if our pitching can hold up, the American league should be worried. We finished 2 games behind the Red Sox last year, and it took our lineup months to get going. All the reports out of Florida indicate the Bombers are going to come out of the gate hot; call me biased, but I am pegging the Yankees as the favorite in the AL East.

UPDATE 3:12 PM 3/13/08: I feel like I need to point out a couple of things as I'm watching the Yanks take on the Pirates, Karstens is having a very rocky outing, hurting his chances of making the roster given the small sample size. Brett Gardner is making my argument for him getting the last position player spot stronger by ripping a double in the 7th inning. Perhaps I would give the Karstens spot to Ohlendorf, and then call up either Karstens or Rasner later in the season for a spot start to keep the innings low on the Big Three.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Justin, great post!!! I’m with you about the yanks being the team to beat in the east. About the pitching, I really hope Ohlendorf gets a spot instead of Patterson. Ohlendorf was very good last year even though he didn't do to well in the playoffs - but who did? I really think Joe should give this kid a look because he has A LOT of promise.

Justin said...

If anyone has seen some of my previous comments on Bryan Hoch's blog on the Yankees.com site, I'm a huge fan of Ohlendorf. I completely agree with you, he looked great last season, and as I mentioned in my previous bullpen post on this blog, his sinker is a real asset out of the pen, giving Girardi a different option.

Patterson has been lights out this spring and had a solid 2007, so I don't know if I would give the spot to Ohlendorf over Patterson. However, as I just noted in the post (I made an update), I would probably give the spot to Ohlendorf over Karstens.

Anonymous said...

Justin, I like your analysis, You certainly study the Yankees.After the poor outing by Karstens, he will remain a question mark for now. I still would rather see Joba in the rotation for now. Fjr69
"GO YANKEES"

Rob said...

Nice analysis there Justin! I think I read that Woodward has some injury, although it's not serious. This could put him behind with a start of the season in AAA. Giambi hits well when he plays the field. Looks like he is in shape and will get some decent time at 1st base. Shelly, with his suspension, will miss the first few games unless his appeal is successful.

matts said...

Hey Justin,

It's Matt from Brian's blog. It's my first time here since you set your blog up. Very good blog!! Due to personal reasons I haven't had the time like I thought I would to post here, only on Brian's blog. Hope you don't take offense by that. By the looks of things , it looks like we agree on more things than I thought. I just got the new that Joba will be starting the season in the pen rather than the rotation. I still think this is a mistake. He should start the season in the rotation when his arm is fresher and stronger rather than later in the season when games count more. What is going to happen when he does start later in the season, and he can't handle the starting role. That might put the Yanks in a bind, especially if the injury bug hits. I also agree about Betemit, he is having a terrible ST. Like all preseason goes in any sport, it's about being able to earn your spot on the roster, rather than have it handed to him on a silver platter simply because he was on last season's roster.He certainly hasn't done that by any means. Keep up the good work!! I'm looking forward to post here more often in the future.