Young Gun Profiles: Ian Kennedy

Welcome to the final installment of the Young Gun profiles, as we take a deeper look into Ian Kennedy. Kennedy seems to be the the topic of some disagreement among baseball writers and Yankee fans. Some see his ceiling as high as Mike Mussina, while others seem him as more of a #3/#4 picther, a sort of Joe Blanton kind of guy. I'm in the Mussina camp, and perhaps this profile will be able to convince some of you out there of Kennedy's potential.

First off, his numbers.
2007 with A+ Tampa: 63 IP, 72 K's, 1.29 ERA
2007 with AA Trenton: 48.2 IP, 57 K's, 2.59 ERA
2007 with AAA Scranton/WB: 34.2 IP, 34 K's, 2.08 ERA
2007 with MLB Yankees: 19 IP, 15 K's, 1.89 ERA
Kennedy was a combined 12-3 with a 1.91 ERA, a 163:50 K/BB ratio and held hitters to a .182 batting average across the three minor league levels.
All of this culminated in Kennedy being named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year but MiLB.com for 2007.

Lets take a look at his stuff. What makes him so successful, when he lacks the ability to overpower a hitter? The answer is simple: control, command, and smarts.

Fastball: Kennedy has a 4-seamer and a 2-seamer. The 4-seamer sits around 89-92 mph, while the 2-seamer clocks in around 87-90, but with great movement. I'm going to have to say this a lot during this profile, but Kennedy has stellar command with his fastballs. He throws them less often than most pitchers do, but only because he uses the fastballs to set hitters up for his secondary stuff. His fastball are fairly average, but his secondary stuff is so good, it really doesn't matter.

Changeup: Kennedy has a plus changeup. Its one of his primary strikeout weapons, and he is able to use it to constantly keep hitters off-balance. The change sits around 80 mph, and has a good amount of sink on it as it tails off when it gets to the plate.

Slider: Kennedy has an above-average slider, and is one of the rare pitchers out there that can get a called strike with the slider, as opposed to hoping the hitter chases it out of the zone. His control is great, and the few times he does miss with the slider, he misses in the dirt out of the zone. He never leaves it hanging up in the zone. Kennedy's slider sits in the mid-80's, and mainly uses it to throw to righties, since the break of a slider is tougher for a righty to hit compared to other breaking pitches. This is another primary strikeout weapon.

Curveball: Kennedy also sports an above-average curveball, with pinpoint accuracy. He uses the curve against lefties, for the same reason that he uses his slider for righties. Yet another one of his primary strikeout weapons.

Ian Kenndy is more than a pitcher; he's an artist. He plans out his pitch sequence like a chess game, and sets hitters up to get consistent outs. He has a reputation of handling pressure very well, always a plus for New York, and he has been one of the most dominant pitchers in organized baseball for 3 of his last 4 years of pitching.

As usual, here's EJ Fagan on Kennedy (and this time the report is brand new, not a year old like the others. Kennedy is still considered a prospect by many sports writers): "I’m Kennedy’s biggest fan on the internet. I’m still disgusting by the persistent statements dooming him to “#3 starter” status at peak. Besides that fact that I don’t think that anyone who makes that accusation can define in precise terms what they mean by #3 starter, I think people are ridiculously underrating his ceiling."

Fagan on a comparison: "Worst case scenario, he’s a solid above-average innings eater. Best case scenario: he’s the heir to Mike Mussina."

My personal prediction is that Ian Kennedy will blossom into a #2 caliber pitcher. The great thing about that is with Hughes and Chamberlain projected to be ace caliber pitchers. What does that mean for our rotation 2-3 years down the line? That means we're looking at Hughes, Chamberlain, Wang, Kennedy, and the #5 spot is open. You could probably switch Kennedy and Wang, since that might be hard to predict. If the big three continue along their current path, we will have the most dominant rotation in recent memory. It feels blasphemous to peg Wang in the #3/#4 hole given that he has won more games than any other major league pitcher over the last two years, but that just shows the type of talent we have on the cusp of a major breakout. If I was the other 29 teams in baseball, I would be very concerned.